Is Bola Tinubu too big to fail?

His politics + blemishes

Good morning.

Last week, Bola Ahmed Tinubu finally did what many had speculated for years he would do: he announced his intention to run for President. It was an unremarkable event. He had gone to see President Muhammadu Buhari at the State House in Abuja and was attending the regular press briefing high profile visitors are usually granted after an audience with the nation’s most powerful man. When asked why he had made the trip to the capital, Tinubu, bespectacled, dressed in a whitish-bluish agbada and a regal cap, said he had come to discuss party politics and national issues such as security and the agenda for the new year. The next question pressed him on whether he had informed the President of his intention to run in 2023. That was when he let the tiger out of the cage.

It wasn’t exactly breaking news. Tinubu, since he returned from the United Kingdom late last year after a lengthy health scare, has been meeting with key political caucuses. Last December, he said he wasn’t going to turn down those who were calling him to run for office after a meeting with leaders of a Northern group. In October, Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu endorsed a Tinubu Presidency. And early this year, ex-lawmaker Abdulmumin Jibrin had said it was a “done deal” that the man famously known as ‘Jagaban’ would run.

But it was at that press conference Tinubu put paid to all speculations. “It is a lifelong ambition” to become President, Tinubu said. “I have the confidence, the vision, the capacity to rule, build on the foundation of Mr. President, and turn Nigeria better. I have done that with commitment . . . in Lagos State.”

Tinubu’s declaration, which had never been a secret it must be emphasised, sent shivers down the nation’s political spine. The next day Ebonyi State Governor Dave Umahi visited the President in the State House and publicly declared his intention to run. Former Abia State Governor, Orji Uzor Kalu did the same. Before the week ran out, more people, even on the other side of the political divide, came out to broadcast their desires. Tinubu opened the floodgates.

On the surface, a Tinubu Presidency seems inevitable. He has access to bullion vans and has been careful not to incur the wrath of the President with his strategically curated silence for the past six years. But his record in Lagos is riddled with allegations of corruption and identity theft. He has been linked to drug trafficking in the past. His health is a major concern and there’s enough reason to question his mental capabilities for a job as demanding as the Presidency. By a long stretch, Tinubu is not Nigeria’s best candidate to become President in 2023. That he has become one of the front-runners to claim the APC ticket and win the general elections is another sign of how Nigeria mortgages its future for the ego of powerful men.

Tinubu’s main advantage is his unexplainable, gargantuan wealth. (There are some who say he owns half of Lagos). And Nigerian politics thrives on cash. But it is sometimes not enough, as men like Atiku Abubakar have painfully found out over the years. The candidate must also be a skilled political negotiator, which Tinubu is. It was his deft calculations that helped bring Buhari to power in 2015 and let him sustain his grip on Lagos State for more than two decades. But his political record isn’t impeachable as seen in South-West elections where annointed Tinubu candidates have struggled to hold sway in recent times.

So, while Tinubu isn’t too big to fail, Nigerians must be wary, must be on guard. He has an excellent chance to be President, and he will throw everything at it.