Thursday brief: Obi leads in poll but race still wide open
+ Lawmakers to pass 2023 budget today
Good morning.
We are focused on a new poll for the 2023 presidential election, the central bank’s review of its cashless policy, and a supplementary budget to address flooding issues.
If you are enjoying this newsletter please support my work by subscribing and telling others about it.
Obi leads in poll but race still wide open
A new poll commissioned by Anap Foundation has placed Peter Obi of the Labour Party as the leading candidate to emerge President in 2023.
At least 23% of voters said they would vote Mr Obi if the elections were held in December.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC came second with 13% while Atiku Abubakar was third with 10%. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP was a distant fourth with 2%.
But very significant was the number of undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate - 29% and 23% respectively, more than half of the respondents.
The poll was conducted via mobile phones.
Reality check: “In summary, our December 2022 Polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner as the undecided voters, combined with the voters who refused to disclose their preferences, are enough to turn the tables,” a statement signed by Anap Foundation’s president, Atedo Peterside, said.
My take: This is encouraging news for Peter Obi supporters. But it’s just that: encouraging. The variables involved in a Nigerian presidential election are staggering, but widespread mobilization plays a key role. With more than 20 state governors and hundreds of federal lawmakers behind him, Tinubu remains the clear favorite and the man to beat. But polls such as Anap’s show that Obi, who has been described as an outsider, is not a push over and will be key to how the February elections turn out.
Election violence: For African Arguments, director of the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), Idayat Hassan, argues that insecurity ahead of the 2023 polls is unprecedented. “The fear of violence may translate into citizens not showing up to cast their votes, contributing to an even lower turnout than the 34.75% figure in 2019 and further introspection about whether Nigeria’s democracy is fit for purpose,” she warned.
CBN reviews its cash withdrawal policy
After intense pushback, the central bank has revised its minimum cash withdrawal policy.
In a week, Individuals can now withdraw a minimum of N500,000 (N100,000 previously) and corporate bodies can withdraw up to N5 million (N500,000 previously).
The new policy comes into effect on January 9.
Acknowledgement: “The CBN recognizes the vital role that cash plays in supporting underserved and rural communities and will ensure an inclusive approach as it implements the transition to a more cash-less society,” a CBN director said in a statement announcing the review.
My take: After mobile money operators threatened to sue and lawmakers urged a review, the CBN was expected to raise the cash limits. The central bank governor, Godwin Emefiele, had also hinted that the bank was open to reviewing the limits as it pursues an aggressive cash-less policy, although he was adamant that cash limits would remain in place as a tool to control money circulation in the economy.
Emefiele: The CBN said its governor would be unable to attend today’s meeting with lawmakers in the House of Representatives as he is “out of the country for official engagement as well as attending to some health challenges.”
FG admits military killed civilians in Zamfara
In a rare acknowledgement, the Federal Government regretted the killing of civilians in an air strike operation targeted at bandits in Zamfara state.
Scores of civilians - one count put it at 64 - were killed on Sunday during the operation.
The military had denied that its strikes killed civilians, describing such reports as propaganda to “cause confusion” and discredit its successess.
But Zamfara State Governor, Bello Matawalle has come out to acknowledge civilian casualties although he did not put a number to it.
“In respect of the unfortunate collateral deaths in Zamfara state, I think the federal government regrets this,” information minister, Lai Mohammed, said on Wednesday.
He suggested it was in the nature of fighting insurgency for civilians to get hurt.
“The air force regrets it; we regret it. But unfortunately, once in a while, it happens,” he said.
My take: The admission is welcome but Mr Mohammed’s notion of fatalism is disappointing at best. If civilians were killed, the least the government should do is to order a probe into how the operation was conducted and assess best practices. But to publicly suggest these civilian deaths were unavoidable is another example of this government’s utter disregard for the sanctity of the average Nigerian life.
What else is happening?
Rail joy: The electric-powered Lagos mass rail, the blue line, made its first trip with governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu aboard. Despite the opaque financing and delays associated with the project, this commissioning should be seen as a historic moment for Lagos state residents.
Good blood: Amid rumors of animosity between the duo, vice president Yemi Osinbajo met with his former boss and APC presidential candidate, Tinubu.
Climate: President Buhari has approved an N819.5 billion supplementary budget for 2022 to help deal with the impact of recent flooding across the country.
2023 budget: The appropriation bill is expected to be passed by the National Assembly today, Thursday.
Public corruption: The EFCC has secured an interim forfeiture of monies and properties recovered from suspended accountant-general of the federation, Ahmed Idris. The forfeited items include a sum of $899,900; N304,490,160.95; and 15 properties in Kano and Abuja.
Asisat Oshoala: The FC Barcelona Femeni forward has received the Pichichi trophy for finishing as the top goal scorer in the 2021/2022 Spanish Primera Division Women League. She scored 20 goals.
Mai Mala Buni: The Yobe Governor said he was not aware that a 16-year-old was arrested by the police for insulting him on social media. “l have now directed his immediate release from detention,” he said.
And that’s it for today. If you are enjoying this newsletter please support my work by subscribing and telling others about it.
Correction: In yesterday’s issue, I described the House of Representatives as the ‘blue chambers’. That’s incorrect. The correct description is the ‘green chambers’. A big shoutout to one of my most loyal readers, Ajibola, for pointing this out to me.